When La Promese, skippered by Jan Kees Lampe took line honours this morning, setting a new record for the 40ft class, many will believe the race to be over. Jan has earned a unique place in sailing history as the thirteenth winner of the OSTAR, joining eleven other names on the winners roll. Jan and his Open 40 became the favourite when both multihulls retired followed by Okami who was leading at the time. However the battle for the prize on corrected time continues.
Rob Craigie on Jbellino is likely to be the second boat home probably sometime late on Saturday evening. When he crosses the line he will become the leader on corrected time. Whether he is beaten will depend on the weather he experiences in the next 36 hours and how fast he can keep moving and what the chasing pack then experiences.
Jbellino will experience winds of 15 to 20 knots from the SSW which will help power him towards the line, but as the sun sets, the wind is going to head them and lighten. Early tomorrow morning Jbellino may be sitting in her patch of calm. It shouldn’t last long and Roberto Westerman (Spinning Wheel) is unlikely to catch Rob, but this is sailing.
Meanwhile the chasing pack is unlikely to experience any calm patches and apart from a brief spell of headwinds the next three days will see them experiencing 10 to 15 knots of winds of reaching conditions. So close to home it may be a question of who can put up the most sail area and not break anything.
However the deciding factor in all this may be the forecast for Monday evening and Tuesday morning. There is a low that is forecast to pass over the Chesapeake Bay area bringing average wind speeds in excess of 30 knots. This could hinder but might help a smaller boat to the prize for the winner on corrected time.
Four days is a long time, but keep your eye on Will Sayer (Elmarleen) and Marco Nannini (British Beagle) and remember that every skipper who completes the OSTAR is a winner.